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FEDERATION OF INDIAN CHAMBERS OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY
Economic Outlook Survey
i) Name & Designation
ii) Company Name
iii) Email
iv) Mobile

Part A

  Macroeconomic Indicators April-June
(Q4 2019-20)
July-September
(Q1 2019-20)
2019-20 2020-21
1. GDP growth rate at market prices (%)
(base year 2011-12 and new methodology)
2. GVA at basic prices at constant prices
(base year 2011-12 and new methodology)
  Agriculture & Allied
  Industry
  Services
3. Gross Domestic Saving (% of GDP)
(base year 2011-12 and new methodology)
4. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (% of GDP at current market prices)
(base year 2011-12 and new methodology)
5. Fiscal Deficit (as % to GDP)
Central Government
6. Growth in IIP (%)
7. WPI All Commodities Inflation rate (%)
8. CPI Combined New Inflation rate (%)
(base year 2012)
9.

Prime Lending Rate (%)

10. Money supply growth (M3) (%)
(end period)
11. Bank credit growth (%)
12. Repo Rate
(end period)
13. Merchandise Export
  Value in USD billion
  Growth (%)
14. Merchandise Import
  Value in USD billion
  Growth (%)
15.

Trade Balance (% to GDP at current price)

16. Current Account Balance
  Value in USD billion
  as % of GDP at current price
17. US$ / INR exchange rate
(end period)


Part B
1. The global trade outlook remains under cloud. The World Trade Organization in its latest forecast has revised down the global trade growth projection for the year 2019 to 2.6% from an earlier estimate of 3.7% in wake of growing protectionism and economic uncertainty. This will have a bearing on India’s trade prospects as well. Additionally, the United States’ withdrawal of Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) benefits to India has emerged as a fresh concern. How do you see India’s exports performance in the year 2019 and what steps do you think we can take to deal with developments such as the US withdrawal of GSP benefits?
  1. According to your estimates, what is India’s potential growth rate?
  1. What should be the country’s strategy to reach its potential growth?
  1. Given the persistent headwinds, do you think the country will be able to emulate its previous high growth performance of over 8.0% growth and sustain it? If yes, by when is a turnaround likely?
2. The latest unemployment numbers released by NSSO re-affirm the grim situation with regard to employment in the country. Availability of adequate and high quality jobs persists to be one of the biggest challenges at hand. Even though the new age sectors like e-commerce, aggregator service providers have created jobs, but these seem far from adequate. Also, the latest data reveals continued over-dependence on the farm sector for employment.
3. The Reserve Bank of India has eased India’s monetary policy stance to accommodative while delivering a third consecutive repo rate cut in the June 2019 policy review. The repo rate has been revised down to 5.75% - which is the lowest since 2010 indicating a clear emphasis on growth considerations.
  1. What is your outlook on the monetary policy for this year (until December 2019)? If you could state your reasons.
  1. The deposit growth remains tardy and the mismatch with the lending growth limits the ability of the banks to transmit the cuts in the repo rate. Also, the government spending has been low and the liquidity situation tight. Amid this situation what should be the strategy to ensure the effectiveness of monetary policy?
4. India’s overall saving rate has declined over the past few years and the decline in household saving rate has been even sharper. This has been a cause of concern. Also, the challenge of intermediation of savings in to financial assets. What steps can be taken to improve financialisation of household savings in India?
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